Saturday
Dec212013

UK unemployment

There's lots of talk that UK unemployment is falling faster than expected, and the Bank of England have brought forward their forecast that it will first fall below 7% from 2016 to 2014. As the chart below shows the rate has steadily fallen since late 2011.

But this is also a nice exercise in the importance of time frame. Here's the same data from February 2009 (i.e. the month in which it went above 7% for the first time)

And here it is going back the last decade

 

I'm using UK unemployment rate aged 16+ (series code MGSX)

Friday
Dec062013

MA takes off

A belated update of MA reveals that the money supply in October jumped to a growth rate of 12.99% (compared to October 2012). The growth rate had been consistently between 7% and 8% since April 2013. This gives further evidence that the UK economy is picking up speed, and perhaps too much. More details in the data section.

(For some reason Google Drive seems unable to show charts, so I've copy and pasted the data into Excel and saved this as an image.)

 

Tuesday
Sep102013

The Yakiniku recovery

Last week saw the 9th quarterly meeting of Kaleidic Economics, and the topic was low growth scenarios, with a particular focus on Japan. 

In the paper we discuss the conflicting debates about the extent to which "the lost decade" is a myth, and whether this is a result of too much, or too little, policy response. The table below shows some typical literature, and interestingly demonstrates that even within the scame school of thought, there are differences of opinion.

 

Policy response

Loose

Tight

Lost decade?

Myth

(i)

?

(ii)

Kelly (2011)

Krugman (2013)?

Reality

(iii)

Powell (2002)

Shostak (2013)

(iv)

Krugman (1998)

Greenwood (2006)

 

Readers may also be interested in the chart showing Japanese GDP per capita relative to Germany, throughout the so-called lost decade [via http://www.tradingeconomics.com/]:

You can read the full report here.

Monday
Aug122013

MA continues to grow

We've just updated our measure of the money supply, MA. It has demonstrated more than 6% growth per month (compared to previous year) for the whole of 2013, and was at 6.93% for June. For an interactive chart and details on compilation see our data section.

Tuesday
Jul092013

Kelly Evans on NGDP prediction markets

Here's a CNBC clip of Kelly Evans (no relation) talking about a prediction market in NGDP. (H/T Lars Christensen).