Choose Your Own Financial Crisis

Following the 12th quarterly meeting of Kaleidic Economics, we have released a new report. The main aim of the meeting was to set out a chronology of the financial crisis, and we've suggested 5 distinct phases:

  1. The build up (2000 Q2 - 2007 Q1)
  2. The upper turning point (2007 Q2 - 2008 Q1)
  3. The secondary recession (2008 Q2 - 2009 Q4)
  4. Austerity (2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4)
  5. The BBQ recovery (2012 Q1 - 2012 Q4)

These aren't perfect, and the report offers a commentary. We then discussed a number of key shocks that occurred within these phases of the crisis, and put them in scenario analysis terms by thinking about predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. As a means to enliven the report, I have tried to explain how this type of analysis might serve as a basis for a "Choose Your Own Adventure" type account of the crisis. 

This is a brief report, because much of the discussion was focused on a utilisation of the Dynamic AD-AS model. That is now a first draft as part of this project, please email me for a copy.