Natural interest rate estimates make the Daily Telegraph

Pete Spence has written an excellent article on natural interest rates in the Daily Telegraph. He says, 

The crisis came at an inconvenient time for policymakers. For the past two decades the so-called “natural rate” had been been trending downwards. This is the theoretical rate which best promotes growth and simultaneously keeps inflation in check. It has been a source of much debate among economists.

He goes on to cite the Kaleidic Economics estimates of the UK natural rate.

My intention is to update this on a regular basis and publish it on our Data page. It looks like there is some interest in this, and so I will focus efforts on providing it. This is great coverage, and especially encouraging that debate is moving in this direction.


MAex growth stabilises at 7.28%

Following recent falls in the growth rate of MAex, December 2014 figures show that it has risen slightly to 7.28%.

Update: There was an error with the chart presented in the previous version of this post.



UK NGDP Q4 2014 prediction market

February 26th will see the publication of the Second Estimate of the UK National Accounts, which will include our first look at the NGDP figures for Q4 2014. 

 For a link to the question at Inkling Markets, see here.


How quickly will Mark Carney run the London marathon?

Here is our new prediction market:


Effective exchange rates

I've just stumbled across the BIS' Effective Exchange Rate Index:

I've always found it difficult to get hold of a regularly updated effectice exchange rate index, and ideally would have a real one (the BIS one is nominal). Any suggestions?